The Expedition to Calculate ‘Movie Magic’: The Supporting Statistics

The journey and the quest to quantify movie magic is definitely not a novel perception. For decades, pre-release film tracking has been practiced. 61% of moviegoers turn to online resources when it comes to researching a new movie, i.e. almost half are relying on online resources for valuable and useful information. With the rise in the amount of information and media influences available, there are additional factors that should be taken into consideration. Moreover, as a lot of research is conducted before moviegoers make the final decision to purchase a particular movie ticket, it is integral as well as crucial to take into account all the intermediate steps.

Google Search and Box Office are Interlinked, But How?

Let’s start with establishing the connection between search activity and box office. If search is an indicator of interest and intent, we can expect that the more movie-related search activity in a given weekend, the bigger the box office report.

We can obtain another interesting pattern if we split the overall search index into film-specific title keywords and generic movie-related keywords. Film-specific title keywords spike during release week of major tent-pole films, such as Avengers, and The Dark Knight. It rather seems that owing to higher awareness and interest levels in these films, moviegoers are likely to search for the specific title instead of general movie information.

Predicting Weekend Box Office: Opening Weekend and Beyond

Opening Weekend: In an analysis entailing 99 films released in 2012, it is shown that a film’s Google search volume during the seven days prior to its opening can be considered as a strong indicator. About 70% of the variation in box office performance can be explained with movie-related search volume a week before the release date.

Key Findings:

• Obviously, search volume alone cannot contribute alone in the whole story. Search ad click volume is also a main component of the prediction model because it implies deeper engagement with a particular film.

• Out of the 30+ different film variables, non-statistically significant variables were removed, the model encompassed the following variables – search query volume (seven-day period prior to release date), search ad click volume (seven-day period prior to release date), theater count and franchise status.

Box office sales can be predicted by the conjunction of the aforementioned variables with 92% accuracy. Thus, from the analysis, we can conclude:

• If one film has 250,000 more search queries than a similar film in the seven day window prior to a film’s release date, the film with more queries is more likely to perform up to $4.3M better during opening weekend.

• If a film has 20,000 more paid clicks than a similar film, when considering search ad click volume, the film is expected to bring in up to $7.5M more during opening weekend.

Beyond Opening Weekend

The number of paid clicks a film acquires during a Monday-Thursday period post-premiere, in combination with a few other film-related metrics, act as strong indicators of how a film will perform in a post-opening weekend against new releases and other holdover films. Search ad clicks further remain a strong indicator for predicting box office performance after opening weekend for holdover films.

Analysis: If one film garners 10,000 more paid clicks than a similar holdover film, the film with more paid clicks is likely to perform approximately $1.9-$3.5M better in weekend box office receipts than the other film.

Predicting Box Office One-Month before Release: Trailer Searches

Trailers are regarded as one of the most dominant sources throughout the decision process to see a movie. Trailers are the most searched for a category of information upon discovery of a new film. Trailer searches, whether on Google or YouTube, signify strong intent of a searcher who is actively seeking a sample of the film.

Clearly, the timing of trailer searches on both Google and YouTube serve as the leading indicators of box office success. Trailer searches on YouTube alone show a strong connection to a film’s opening weekend performance. A variation of 94% in a film’s box office opening can be explained with trailer-related title search volume a month prior to release, in combination with seasonality and franchise status.

All this gives a clear indication to movie marketers that the availability of content, specifically trailers, is quite important for moviegoers at all phases of the decision process.

Conclusion: A Look at a Few Major Insights

• The choice to see a movie can be regarded as an extremely well thought-out research process. Searches in the movie category on Google are up 56% from 2011 to 2012, indicating a rise in digital engagement and desire for more information.

• Search provides an exclusive opportunity for film marketers to expand engagement with potential moviegoers. By assessing how and what consumers are searching for, one can discover unique insight into moviegoer awareness and target.

• Query volume and paid click volume coupled with other movie-related variables, like theater counts, can indicate a film’s opening weekend performance with accuracy of 92% and succeeding weekend performance with 90% accuracy.

• Trailer-related search trends four weeks out from a movie release offer strong predictive power for opening weekend box office revenue. Trailer search volume on Google in conjunction with both the franchise status of the movie and seasonality can be used to predict opening weekend box office revenue with almost 94% precision.

• Moviegoers that decide what film to watch the day they buy their ticket account for 48%, thus making it vital to have a continued search presence through opening weekend and beyond.

By understanding these search patterns, movie marketers can be in a better position to line up and adjust their strategies to attract the attention of potential moviegoers. Eventually, it is this online engagement that will give a substantial insight into intent, supporting movie marketers with precise data in their never-ending quest to quantify movie magic.

Some nice links:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/craig-kanalley/reykjavik-internet-marketing-conference-2013_b_2956855.html

http://yarddigital.com/reykjavik-internet-marketing-conference/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2013/03/18/content-marketing-what-happens-in-iceland-doesnt-stay-in-iceland/

http://searchenginewatch.com/article/2256622/Winning-the-Search-Social-Game-of-Thrones-QA-With-Bings-Duane-Forrester

http://econsultancy.com/is/blog/62398-northern-lights-on-search-and-social-bing-google-twitter-and-dell-at-rimc13

http://www.holisticsearch.co.uk/2013/03/21/reykjavik-internet-marketing-conference-day-1/

http://www.holisticsearch.co.uk/2013/03/22/reykjavik-internet-marketing-conference-rimc13-day-2/

http://fusionstealth.com/2013/04/reykjavik-internet-marketing-conference-2011/

http://www.stateofsearch.com/event/reykjavik-internet-marketing-conference-2013/

Even more:

The State of Search & Social – #RIMC13

RIMC 2013: Tools of the Trade #RIMC13

The PC is Dead. Long Live Mobile… & the Tablet! #RIMC13

RIMC 2013: Site Architecture the Right Way – Shari Thurow #RIMC13

RIMC 2013: Duane Forrester – First Keynote #RIMC13

Brainstorming
After being briefed by the client, the NeM project team sits down and reviews the assignment. We might start with a set of ideas given to us by the client as the main guideline; however, we evaluate numerous possibilities in order to give the project that unique spark.

We’re looking for ideas that are: interesting; appealing to the linkerati / socialrati; has real data; and preferably a unique hook. An idea might come directly from a specific niche we’re targeting. We will try to look for angles that people don’t normally take, to present “boring” information conversely, or in a stimulating method.

The main thing to have in mind is to never dismiss the first idea, it could be the spark that ignites the fire.

Research
We might walk away from a brainstorming meeting with a vague concept and idea of the target audience, but that is enough for the project’s inception. From this point we start researching data that can be used to form the basis of the infographics.

There are several goals that we want to meet before we can continue: Concept Development; Localization; Design; Revision; and Distribution.

Concept Development
We have completed the brainstorming and research process, collected the data, and now it is time to develop the concept. The client is briefed in the results found, and if we agree on the approach, we put our creative hats on.

Localization
If the information graph is adapted from English to another language, we need to make sure that we localize it, not only the text but also the image and colors.

Design
Now everything is ready to be passed on to the design team to have a go at the data and ideas collected. The client is handed the first rough draft quite quickly to make sure that we are still on the right track.

Revision
To make sure that the image has the impact expected, the design is revisited couple of times. Things like typos, content error, and further design consideration need to be taken in to account. This step needs to be taken seriously.

Distribution
The final stage is the distribution, making the image do its job, and getting the impact needed. Here, the ROI of all previous works happens ;-)

This can be done through emails, blogs, articles, social networks, social bookmarking and other type of social media sharing and submitting to infographic sites.

Here are infographics for this post in three languages.

EN: Infographics: Multilingual Development Process
DE: Infografiken: Multilingualer Entwicklungsprozess
FR: Infographie: Processus de développement multilingue

You can read the full Opportunities in Global Search Engine Marketing here

Webmaster Central office hours about multinational and multilingual sites

Factors to consider when choosing SEO tools

There are various types of tools and within each type there are multiple variants of the tools available for a successful SEO.  Before choosing a tool, one must consider many factors, some of which are listed below.

1. Does your business need a specialized tool or a standard tool?

This question needs answer to make sure that the tool you chose works with your offerings (product/service) and is also in line with your search engine marketing strategy. If there are specific needs of the business which cannot be fulfilled with a standard tool, then you will have to look at what degree of customization is absolutely crucial. Based on these factors, you would decide if you need a customized tool, and how much customization is required or if standard tool would fulfill your purpose.

2. What are the customization options?

When the need for customization is indispensable, you would see how much customization is possible in a given tool. The more the options, the more choices you have to align it with your marketing strategies. Also they are a welcome addition to the functionality of your website and credibility of your services.

3.  Can the tools be regularly updated?

This is possibly one of the most important considerations you will have to make. The reason is that your market is continuously changing, and so will be the requirements from the tool. You need to know that your tools can be updated and you won’t have to buy a new one every time there is an update in the search engines. With the intensity algorithms have been changing, you will need to keep up with the changes.

4. What is the level of customer support?

In the complex world of tools, you will need this more than in most industries. One should consider before choosing tools how much customer support can be expected in the future, and if the customer support would remain the same when you move from free trial to being a paid customer? Another important aspect will be to look at the information available on using the tools and updating them. The more comprehensive the information in the form of FAQs, videos and other literature, the better it is for you.

5. Does the cost fit with your budget? Are there any free tools available?

While this is a factor in every aspect of any business, here it gains a little more importance because prices between tools will vary greatly with minutest of differences. You would need to decide whether the small add on is worth the money, or if there are other free tools available with almost the same offerings. Many times you could do well with free tools if they suit the major part of your requirements.

Types of Tools

Once these factors are taken into consideration, then you would look at the multitude of tools available. The types of tools can be broadly categorized into following types.

Keyword Research Tools

These tools are used to determine which keywords to target which most closely address your products/services. Not only these tools suggest possible keywords, they also give you details such as the competition on the keywords, usage by people of the keywords in a particular industry, and even details of keywords that your competitors are ranking on. Some examples of such keyword tools are Google Keyword tools, SEM rush, Uber suggest and similar others.

Technical Audit

These tools are used basically to monitor the health of your website. They would tell you about the errors, issues of duplicate content, redirects and similar others. These tools are also aimed at keeping track of websites on search engines in terms of rankings, the friendliness with crawlers and indexers. These tools have interfaces which will allow seeing how a search engine perceives of your website. Some of the examples of these tools are SEOmoz’s SEO toolbar, SEO browser, Google & Bing Webmaster tools, screaming frog, firebug and many more.

Link Analyzer and Tracker Tools

Everyone involve in SEO business how important the link is. And with the new updates of Google, it has become all the more important to see where the links are, what kind of traffic are they generating and how much and web page’s & domain’s authority. It can also help monitor how social media is affecting your website. Couple of examples would be Open site Explorer and Majestic SEO.

Evolution of Tools

As the market has evolved, so have the tools. There are many new tools available which give more detailed results for a more specific criterion. Some of the examples below will further explain this

Omniture

Recently acquired by Adobe, this company offers tools to track social media. Since social media is gaining importance not just in search engines but in other spheres of life as well, these tools can help you monitor your performance on social media. It gives detailed results about the likes, shares and other such activities on social media and also helps identify Spam in social media.

Google Analytics Advanced Version

This is an advanced keyword search tool, which helps in real time tracking of keywords and also can track specific events when using the options available. These events can be set by the company such as when a user fills a form, or when a user leaves a shopping cart with items in it and similar other events.

Google Trends

This particular tool is useful for keyword tracking, the seasonal variations of the search, the regional details of the search and similar other options.

Google Zeitgeist

This new offering from Google is one large database. Here you can search for trends associated with anything and anyone, for example which person/movie/product was the most searched for in last year, searches by region and similar other options.

One of the main reasons that have caused the evolution is the way search engines today display the ranking. Search engines today are trying to understand the consumer by mapping his behavior, intent and then displaying personalized search results based on location. This means that new factors have come in which would further affect the way tools are used.

Some of these factors are listed here.

Geotargeting

Even if the user is not logged in the search engine, it can still increase the relevancy of the results by giving preference to local results first. There are tools needed, which would help with Geotargeting and localized SEO has gained importance.

Multiple Browsers Compatibility

With the array of browsers available to user today, it is difficult to generalize which one he uses. Now this becomes a problem, because what is configured or designed for one browser may not display the same way in the other. Tools are required to make sure there is more flexibility and information is displayed in the same fashion across different platforms.

Multilingual Capability

Global search engine marketing required SEO to be able to cater different countries in their own language. Tools are required which could automatically transform the page in the user’s preferred language when he/she views the information.

Real time Dashboard

With so many factors coming in, it is only natural that work needs to be done faster and quick real time decisions are taken. Real time decisions need real time data and one way to do that will be through a tool which shows this data real time on page.

With more advanced options available, smart SEO’s will be able to keep up with the growing pace of the market. There are tools which can give you a helicopter view and tools which can give you microscopic views. The trick is in choosing the best tools that suits your personal requirements. And if there are not met by the tools today, rest assure more are coming.

1. Appeal to consumers’motivation to connect with each other —not just with your brand
2. Trust is the cost of entry for getting shared
3. Keep it simple… and it will get shared… and it won’t get muddled
4. Appeal to their sense of humor
5. Embrace a sense of urgency

Getting your content shared is just the beginning, E-mail is still number one.

You can find the the New York Times Insights Research below

http://nytmarketing.whsites.net/mediakit/pos/

„I loved the atmosphere, mood and networking at RIMC“
Massimo Burgio – Global Interactive

“Iceland is so beautiful and so different from anything else I have seen and experienced”
Mikkel DeMib – DeMib.com

“RIMC is one of those smaller conferences where you actually get to talk to most people and mingle more closely with the other speakers.”
Mikkel DeMib – DeMib.com

„Just WOW… Reykjavik Internet Marketing Conference #RIMC12“
Peter Handley – Director of SEO at theMediaFlow

• An Extraordinary Experience
• Just WOW… Reykjavik Internet Marketing Conference #RIMC12
• Misc. RIMC stuff on State of Search
• Mikkel DeMib Search Engine Evangelist
• Massimo Burgio – Mr. Social Media
• Internet World Magazine lists RIMC in Top 20 Conferences
• Pictures from RIMC 2011